{"id":4743,"date":"2026-05-09T10:10:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T10:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rimanagency.com\/subscription-churn-forecaster\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T10:10:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T10:10:35","slug":"subscription-churn-forecaster","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/rimanagency.com\/fr\/subscription-churn-forecaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9visionniste de d\u00e9sabonnement"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.rt-h{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#f1f5e8,#e8efdb);border-radius:14px;padding:32px;margin:0 0 24px;text-align:center}.rt-h h1{margin:0 0 10px;font-size:28px;color:#4a6320}.rt-g{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:18px;margin:0 0 24px}.rt-f,.rt-o{background:#fff;border:1px solid #e0e6d8;border-radius:10px;padding:22px}.rt-f h3,.rt-o h3{margin:0 0 14px;color:#4a6320;font-size:18px}.rt-f label{display:block;font-size:13px;color:#516048;font-weight:600;margin:10px 0 6px}.rt-f input,.rt-f select,.rt-f textarea{width:100%;padding:9px;border:1px solid #d4dac6;border-radius:6px;font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:inherit}.rt-btn{background:#719430;color:#fff;border:none;padding:11px 20px;border-radius:6px;font-weight:700;cursor:pointer;width:100%;margin-top:14px;font-size:15px}.rt-btn:hover{background:#4a6320}.rt-o-big{font-size:38px;font-weight:800;color:#719430;text-align:center;margin:6px 0}.rt-o-row{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;padding:9px 0;border-bottom:1px solid #f0f3e8;font-size:14px}.rt-o-row:last-child{border:none}.rt-o-row b{color:#4a6320}.rt-cta{background:linear-gradient(135deg,#719430,#4a6320);color:#fff;border-radius:14px;padding:32px;text-align:center;margin:30px 0}.rt-cta a{background:#fff;color:#4a6320;padding:12px 28px;border-radius:6px;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none;display:inline-block;margin-top:14px}.rt-code{background:#1e1e1e;color:#a3c163;padding:14px;border-radius:8px;font-family:Consolas,monospace;font-size:12px;white-space:pre-wrap;word-break:break-all;max-height:300px;overflow:auto}@media(max-width:768px){.rt-g{grid-template-columns:1fr}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"rt-h\">\n<h1>Pr\u00e9visionniste de d\u00e9sabonnement<\/h1>\n<p>Pr\u00e9voir le nombre d&#039;abonn\u00e9s sur 12 mois en utilisant le taux de d\u00e9sabonnement actuel, les inscriptions et le taux de r\u00e9activation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"rt-g\">\n<div class=\"rt-f\">\n<h3>Entr\u00e9es<\/h3>\n<p><label>Abonn\u00e9s actuels<\/label><input type=\"number\" id=\"sc-start\" value=\"5000\"><label>Nouveaux abonn\u00e9s par mois<\/label><input type=\"number\" id=\"sc-new\" value=\"400\"><label>Taux de d\u00e9sabonnement mensuel (%)<\/label><input type=\"number\" id=\"sc-churn\" value=\"5\" step=\"0.1\"><label>R\u00e9activations \/ mois<\/label><input type=\"number\" id=\"sc-react\" value=\"30\"><button class=\"rt-btn\" onclick=\"calcCh()\">Pr\u00e9vision<\/button><\/div>\n<div class=\"rt-o\">\n<h3>Pr\u00e9visions sur 12 mois<\/h3>\n<div class=\"rt-o-big\" id=\"sc-big\">\u2014<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;color:#516048;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 18px\" id=\"sc-v\">Ex\u00e9cuter les pr\u00e9visions<\/p>\n<div class=\"rt-o-row\"><span>Nouveaux nets \/ mois (m1)<\/span><b id=\"sc-net\">\u2014<\/b><\/div>\n<div class=\"rt-o-row\"><span>Abonn\u00e9s du 6e mois<\/span><b id=\"sc-6\">\u2014<\/b><\/div>\n<div class=\"rt-o-row\"><span>Abonn\u00e9s du mois 12<\/span><b id=\"sc-12\">\u2014<\/b><\/div>\n<div class=\"rt-o-row\"><span>croissance sur 12 mois<\/span><b id=\"sc-gr\">\u2014<\/b><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><script>function calcCh(){var s=+document.getElementById(\"sc-start\").value||0;var n=+document.getElementById(\"sc-new\").value||0;var ch=+document.getElementById(\"sc-churn\").value\/100||0;var re=+document.getElementById(\"sc-react\").value||0;if(!s)return;var size=s,m6=0,m12=0,firstNet=0;for(var i=1;i<=12;i++){var lost=size*ch;var net=n+re-lost;if(i===1)firstNet=net;size+=net;if(i===6)m6=size;if(i===12)m12=size;}var gr=(m12\/s-1)*100;document.getElementById(\"sc-big\").textContent=Math.round(m12).toLocaleString();document.getElementById(\"sc-v\").textContent=\"Subscribers in 12 months\";document.getElementById(\"sc-net\").textContent=Math.round(firstNet).toLocaleString();document.getElementById(\"sc-6\").textContent=Math.round(m6).toLocaleString();document.getElementById(\"sc-12\").textContent=Math.round(m12).toLocaleString();document.getElementById(\"sc-gr\").textContent=gr.toFixed(1)+\"%\";}<\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Le plafond de d\u00e9sabonnement sur la croissance des abonnements<\/h2>\n<p>Un taux de d\u00e9sabonnement mensuel de 5% limite la croissance, m\u00eame avec un taux d&#039;inscription \u00e9lev\u00e9. Avec 5\u00a0000 abonn\u00e9s et un taux de d\u00e9sabonnement de 5%, vous perdez 250 abonn\u00e9s par mois \u00e0 cause du seul d\u00e9sabonnement\u00a0; il vous faudrait donc en recruter 250 pour maintenir votre croissance. R\u00e9duire le taux de d\u00e9sabonnement d&#039;un point \u00e9quivaut math\u00e9matiquement \u00e0 une forte augmentation du taux d&#039;inscription.<\/p>\n<h2>Foire aux questions<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Roulement volontaire ou involontaire ?<\/strong><br \/>Il convient de les suivre s\u00e9par\u00e9ment. Les impay\u00e9s (rejets de paiement) peuvent \u00eatre recouvr\u00e9s par relance. Les annulations volontaires n\u00e9cessitent un travail sur le produit ou l&#039;exp\u00e9rience client.<\/p>\n<div class=\"rt-cta\">\n<h3 style=\"margin:0 0 6px\">Vous souhaitez un programme de croissance par abonnement int\u00e9grant une r\u00e9duction du taux de d\u00e9sabonnement\u00a0?<\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin:0;opacity:.95\">L&#039;agence Riman g\u00e8re la croissance des abonnements DTC.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/fr\/contact\/\">Contactez l&#039;\u00e9quipe des abonnements<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Subscription Churn Forecaster Forecast 12-month subscriber base using current churn rate, signups, and reactivation rate. Inputs Current subscribersNew subscribers \/ monthMonthly churn (%)Reactivations \/ monthForecast 12-Month Forecast \u2014 Run forecast Net new \/ month (m1)\u2014 Subscribers month 6\u2014 Subscribers month 12\u2014 12-month growth\u2014 The churn ceiling on subscription growth A 5% monthly churn caps growth [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-4743","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Subscription Churn Forecaster - Riman Agency<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/rimanagency.com\/fr\/subscription-churn-forecaster\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Subscription Churn Forecaster - Riman Agency\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Subscription Churn Forecaster Forecast 12-month subscriber base using current churn rate, signups, and reactivation rate. Inputs Current subscribersNew subscribers \/ monthMonthly churn (%)Reactivations \/ monthForecast 12-Month Forecast \u2014 Run forecast Net new \/ month (m1)\u2014 Subscribers month 6\u2014 Subscribers month 12\u2014 12-month growth\u2014 The churn ceiling on subscription growth A 5% monthly churn caps growth [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/rimanagency.com\/fr\/subscription-churn-forecaster\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Riman Agency\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/subscription-churn-forecaster\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/subscription-churn-forecaster\\\/\",\"name\":\"Subscription Churn Forecaster - Riman Agency\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-09T10:10:35+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/subscription-churn-forecaster\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/subscription-churn-forecaster\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/subscription-churn-forecaster\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/home\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Subscription Churn Forecaster\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Riman Agency\",\"description\":\"A Full Service Digital Marketing Agency\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Riman Agency\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/RIMANagency-all-logos-1-2.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/RIMANagency-all-logos-1-2.png\",\"width\":694,\"height\":211,\"caption\":\"Riman Agency\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/rimanagency.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Subscription Churn Forecaster - Riman Agency","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/rimanagency.com\/fr\/subscription-churn-forecaster\/","og_locale":"fr_CA","og_type":"article","og_title":"Subscription Churn Forecaster - Riman Agency","og_description":"Subscription Churn Forecaster Forecast 12-month subscriber base using current churn rate, signups, and reactivation rate. 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